North Carolina State Senate Model (version 6)

September 2019

PlanScore bases its scores on predicted precinct-level votes for North Carolina State Senate built from past election results and U.S. Census data. To predict future major-party results, we compare precinct-level results from 2018 State Senate races with the 2016 Clinton/Trump presidential election.

We obtained all results from North Carolina’s State Board of Elections, assembled them in a single table, and entered them into our ordinary least squares regression model:

Prediction validation graph with RMSE = 0.047

Browse model code and data on Github.

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